Playing Betzy Double-or-Nothing Game

Published: September 7th, 2021

This tutorial is a short synopsis of how to play the Betzy Double-or-Nothing game using smileycoin on the blockchain. This is a very simple game where you send a number of SmileyCoins to the Betzy address and if you win, you receive double what you sent. After a couple of years of playing this game, the odds seem to be 50/50%. So how do you play it so you win more than you sent?

Definitions

We need to go over some definitions real quick so you know what is being discussed:

• Betzy Contract Address - BEtZyyYqDXqmRJJ45nnL15cuASfiXg9Yik (link points to the native SmileyCoin block explorer)

• SmileyCoin - A cryptocurrency focused on "Equality in Education" and donations.

• Contract - A set of instructions for a program that resides publicly on a blockchain.

• Betzy Game - A game (or contract) on the SmileyCoin blockchain that is available to play by anyone who can send an amount of smileycoins to the Betzy address.

• Roll - Any time you send a transaction of any amount of smileycoins to the Betzy game address.

• Rolls - a series of transactions grouped together.

• Win - You win a roll by receiving a deposit that is double what you sent.

• Lose - You lose a roll by receiving nothing in return.

Testing Betzy

The first thing to do when playing Betzy is to test the game. There have been numerous times when playing the game where the program running the contract stalls; yes, that's correct - it stalls. What this means is you'll be sending smileycoins to the Betzy address and you receive nothing in return. The problem this creates is you don't know if you've lost the individual roll or if the game has stalled out. 

The solution to this nagging problem is to test the game with small rolls until you win. Once you win, you can continue normal game play because you know the game is working. This can be done by sending a small amount of smileycoins to the Betzy address (8 is our preferred amount to begin with) and increasing the bet by 1 smileycoin until you receive a winning roll (deposit of double the amount you sent).

Example

1. Bet amount 8 - no deposit

2. Bet amount 9 - no deposit

3. Bet amount 10 - 20+ deposit

This indicates the game is working and ready to play.

Playing the Odds

The Betzy contract odds are 50:50. In theory, every win roll is followed by a lose roll. In reality, the rolls are all over the place. To master this game, you must play the odds. This means, if you win a roll, your next bet should be based on the probability that the next roll will be a loss. Alternatively, if you lose a roll, you should bet based on the probability that the next roll will be a win. Your play should be based on multiple rolls, otherwise your odds will remain 50:50. 

Eventually, if you play long enough, you will find yourself with long streaks of wins and loses. The probability that you will lose 10 rolls in a row is 1 in 1024 or 0.0976563% based on 50:50 odds. This is enough to play the odds if you're willing to roll 10 times. 

Martingale Strategy

During your game play, you should incorporate the Martingale strategy into your rolls. This strategy capitalizes on the losing rolls by increasing the bet amount. This requires more brain power than simply randomly rolling the same bet. Take a look at this example to see what we mean.

Example:

1. first bet 8 = loss 8 (-8)

2. second bet 50 = loss 50 (-58) (total bet so far 8 + 50 = 58)

3. third bet 120 = loss 120 (-178) (total bet so far 8 + 50 + 120 = 178)

4. fourth bet 300 = win 600 (+122) (total bet so far 8 + 50 + 120 + 300 = 478)

You will notice the increasing bets are not exactly double. You want to increase the bet size by 2.5 rather than 2 (50 x 2 = 100) because if you don't, you won't be increasing your smileycoin amount when you win; you will be breaking even. You don't want to spend the transaction fees or be stressed out only to break even.

Winning

Rolls (a series of rolls for the game) are completed when you finally receive a win - double the amount you sent. Once you win a series of rolls, return to the original bet amount (8) and begin the strategy again.

Maximum Limit

To protect yourself, you need to have an acceptable amount of loss. Your chances of rolling 10 losses in a row is tiny, but you also have to contend with the possibility of the contract stalling during your game play. If we were to compare this game to roulette, the stalling would be the equivalent of a green 0 or 00: You lose because you don't bet on greens. Set your own personal limit based on how many SmileyCoins you have in your wallet and how much you can afford to lose and still continue playing. 

You will eventually roll 10 losses in a row and you will eventually encounter the contract stalling. This is inevitable, so you need to plan for it. Following the above example, if you create a limit of 6, your odds of rolling 6 losses in a row is 1 in 64 rolls or 0.15625%. Here is what your game play would look like:

Example:

5. reset bet 8 = loss 8 (-8)

6. first bet (more than 2.5 after first loss) 50 = loss 50 (-58) (total bet 8 + 50 = 58)

7. second bet (50 x 2.5) 125 = loss 125 (-183) (total bet 8 + 50 + 125 = 183)

8. third bet (125 x 2.5) 313 = loss 313 (-496) (total bet 8 + 50 + 125 + 313 = 496)

9. fourth bet (313 x 2.5) 783 = loss 783 (-1279) (total bet 8 + 50 + 125 + 313 + 783)

10. fifth bet (783 x 2.5) 1,958 = loss 1,958 (3,327) (total bet 8 + 50 + 125 + 313 + 783 + 1,958)

11. sixth bet (1,958 x 2.5) 4,895 = loss 4,895 (8,132) (total bet 8 + 50 + 125 + 313 + 783 + 1,958 + 4,895)

A win on the sixth bet of 4,895 would get a return of 9,790 smileycoins for a total profit of 1,568. If you lost on the sixth bet, you have reached your limit and you would either stop betting or start testing the contract again (to determine if it has stalled). 

A note on the stalling of the contract: When the contract stalls, you lose the ability to determine if you've won or lost. When the contract comes back online, your bets on the blockchain will be honored and you may find out you've won some of those bets.

Using this example, you need to have at least 11,369 in your wallet (plus more for your next series of rolls) to continue playing. 

The Setup

So how do you setup this bet strategy? First you test the contract, like above. Once you've determined the game is working and not stalled out, you then decrease your bet from the first bet (8) incrementally until you receive a loss. This ensures that your chances of a win coming up next are at least 50:50. Begin the Martingale bet strategy after your first loss. To increase your odds for a win, wait for two losses in a row, three losses in a row and so on. 

Example:

1. Bet amount: 8 - loss/no deposit

2. Bet amount: 9 - loss/no deposit

3. Bet amount: 10 - win 20+ deposit (verified the contract is online)

4. Bet amount: 7 - win 14+ deposit (decreased bet by 1 less than the starting bet)

5. Bet amount: 6 - loss/no deposit

6. Bet amount: 50 - begin Martingale bet strategy

Don't forget to have fun because you are essentially gambling. The beauty of this type of game is that you are contributing to "Equality in Education" and the SmileyCoin ecosystem. Any use case of SmileyCoin increases its value.