This is a quick write up on how to play dice using Bayesian statistics during game play. SouthXchange is a great platform for playing dice and using Bayesian statistics. 

What is Dice

Dice is an online game that allows you to place wagers in cryptocurrency against the outcome of a "dice roll". To be more accurate, this could really be a coin flip game instead of a dice roll but games usually favor calling it dice. Two ten-sided dice are rolled, one with 0-9 and one with 00-90 (00, 10, 20, and so on). If the number (adding up both dice) lands between 00 and 49, you win. If the number lands between 50 and 99, you lose. Essentially only one die with 00-90 is necessary. 

The website or app is the "house" and takes a cut of your winnings and all of your losings. The cut is usually 1% or 1 point. If you bet 0.1 and win, your winnings would be 0.098 added to the 0.1 that you bet or 0.198 total. This is necessary to help the house pay for server maintenance, upgrades and advertising.  

The Odds

The odds are pretty simple: 50/50 odds on the outcome of the dice roll. SouthXchange has a provably fair way to roll the dice using a seed or hash. The way to play is to change your bet and use groups of rolls. The house has an edge by the payout of 1.98x or 1% cut and the player has an edge by how much he bets. For instance, what are the chances you'll roll 4 losses in a row: First roll is 50%, second roll is 25%, third roll is 12.5% and the fourth roll is 6.125%. Your odds of rolling 4 losses in a row is 6.125%.

To add more complexity for the player, most dice games allow you to change the odds by adjusting what number is the cutoff for winning. This changes the odds from 50/50 to whatever you choose. The payout is adjusted as well to reflect the change in odds. No matter what number you choose, the house will always have an edge, so for this strategy, you leave the odds at 50/50.

Betting

If you roll a win, it is most likely that you will roll a loss on your next roll. Statistically, you should roll a loss after every win and a win after every loss. Reality is not statistics however, and that's not how it will show up. So when the odds are you'll win on the next roll, you bet as if you are going to win: 0.0001. Likewise, if the odds are you will lose on your next roll, you bet as if you'll lose: 0.00001.

If you bet on groups of rolls, your first bet would be 0.00001 (because cryptocurrency allows you to move the decimal place to the left up to 8 times). If you win, you will receive 0.0000198 and you stop the rolling. Some games allow you the ability to Stop on loss or on win; use this feature. 

If you roll a loss, you want to change your bet by 107% - this is slightly more than doubling your bet. The strategy behind this is to win back what you just lost and slightly more. You employ this strategy up to a certain number of bets, again, some games allow you the ability to stop on loss or on win AND up to a specified number of bets (using an Auto feature). By using 11 as your number of bets (your bet group), you are essentially betting that you will NOT roll 11 losses in a row and slightly more than doubling your bet each new roll in the bet group. 

You have a 0.05% chance of rolling 11 losses in a row or 1 in 2,048. This translates to a very small chance of rolling 11 losses in a row BUT you must remember that if you play long enough, you will hit 11 losses in a row. This is employing a stop loss technique if you hit that number. 

Losing

Hitting 11 losses in a row after starting the bet at 0.00001 will have you losing 0.02793474749 (with each bet added). Once you hit that rare 11 losses in a row, you 10x your bet by moving the decimal place to the right one time or 0.0001. The odds of you hitting two 11 losses in a row is 0.05% of 0.05% or 1 in 4,194,304 and the odds increase with the more times you roll. This means that you are least likely to hit another 11 losses on your very next roll group (1 in 4,194,304) and this is why you increase your bets for a while.

Your Stack

You will want to go into the game with a stack of cryptocurrency, about 1 coin in this scenario. This will have you winning about 0.1 coins a day if you play for a majority of the day.

Likelihood

If you are playing regularly throughout the day, you will probably hit 11 losses in a row at least twice. In this scenario, you would increase your bet from 0.00001 to 0.0001 for 1-2 hours after hitting the 11 losses in a row, recover your losses, then change your bet back to 0.00001. It will only take about 10 minutes to make back what you lost on the 11 losses in a row if you increase your bet to 0.0001 and another 10 minutes to get ahead. If you continue 1-2 hours, you'll get very ahead. But remember, the longer you bet, the more likelihood that you'll roll another 11 losses in a row. You protect your bets by decreasing to 0.00001.

Chart

Here is a chart of the betting structure with Litecoin and Bitcoin (see tabs below table). You can use different decimal places to change how much you are betting. For instance, maybe with Bitcoin you want to start the bets with 0.000001 instead of 0.00001.